- Obama can win states that are liberal like Iowa. These include NJ,WI,MN,IL,MD, MA, MI, CA, OR and WA.
- Hillary can win states that are more moderate like New Hampshire. These include PA, OH, VA, FL, MO, TX, and the other western states.
- New York could be up for grabs.
- My election scale is based on this observation...Obama got almost 40% in a very liberal state while Clinton beat him by 3% in a fairly conservative state. So if a state is more liberal than New Hampshire, I predict an Obama victory. If it is as conservative or more conservative than New Hampshire, I predict Clinton will win. Basic, simple, primitive analysis and I could be wrong.
- If my Iowa/ New Hampshire meter is accurate, the race will be back and forth with Hillary eking out a win over Obama (who becomes her running mate for VP).
Call it my Iowa/ New Hampshire meter.