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Tuesday, January 08, 2008

My Iowa / New Hampshire Democrat Primary Meter

Here is what I see based on Iowa / New Hampshire:
  1. Obama can win states that are liberal like Iowa. These include NJ,WI,MN,IL,MD, MA, MI, CA, OR and WA.
  2. Hillary can win states that are more moderate like New Hampshire. These include PA, OH, VA, FL, MO, TX, and the other western states.
  3. New York could be up for grabs.
  4. My election scale is based on this observation...Obama got almost 40% in a very liberal state while Clinton beat him by 3% in a fairly conservative state. So if a state is more liberal than New Hampshire, I predict an Obama victory. If it is as conservative or more conservative than New Hampshire, I predict Clinton will win. Basic, simple, primitive analysis and I could be wrong.
  5. If my Iowa/ New Hampshire meter is accurate, the race will be back and forth with Hillary eking out a win over Obama (who becomes her running mate for VP).

Call it my Iowa/ New Hampshire meter.

3 comments: said...

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AJ Lynch said...

Well Hillary won Nevada and that is what my Iowa/ New Hampshire primary meter predicted.

AJ Lynch said...

Obama won South Carolina, a conservative state. BUT I forgot to factor in race as an issue when I came up with my New Hampshire. Iowa Primary Meter.

No biggie, stuff happens.